Ensuring the robust science of assessment report
There are several ways to ensure the robust science of our assessment. The first one is to select an extremely competent, high profile and international author team for all the chapters that we have in our assessment. Second, we took great care to look at the balance and ensure not only the regional, gender balance but also the scientific balance of our author team. Third, we have mechanism by which we produce two stages of draft reports,  to be reviewed by the experts of the world and the governments  These are the ingredients that help us to ensure a robust, comprehensive and transparent assessment report.
  IPCC has made progresses in three aspects

The first comes from observations, what is available in terms of measurements of changes in the climate system. The biggest progress has been a much more extended and more comprehensive observational database, for example, acquiring information about the big polar ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctic showing melting information. The second is the link between the increase of carbon dioxide and observational changes has become stronger and clear. The third area of progress concerns the model projection. In the first assessment report there were only two global comprehensive models available, now we have 45 models available from many countries around the world.

  Meteorology plays an important role in ecological construction
Meteorology, climate science and science in general all play a central role in the sustainable and ecological development, because it’s the sciences that provide information for the intelligent decisions. They provide information, for example, the water resources that will be available in the next 50 or 200 years in the light of climate change, they will inform us about the challenges of coastal communities in the light of sea level rise and other such information. It’s absolutely central that every country maintains a strong meteorological scientific activity so that they can deal with their regional and local problems.
  Communicating the scientific results to global audience
As a piece of suggestion,  the Chinese scientists need continue to publish their results in the major international journals. It has a double profit and double benefit. First of all, you need to express your findings in English language. Second, by being able to publish these in English journals, you communicate your scientific results to much wider audience than you publish your same results in a Chinese journal, which perhaps translate the abstract into English, but it is very difficult to access that information for people outside China.

Interview:The Progress of IPCC Assessment Report

 

In October 2014, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) will be released by IPCC. Prof. Thomas Stocker, Co-chair of Working GroupⅠaccepted the joint interview of China Meteorological News and Xinhua News on the current conditions of climate change and the stories behind the report.

 

 

Reporter:as we know, the IPCC has released the contributions of three working groups of AR5. In this October, the syntheses report of AR5 will be released, what is going on now for IPCC to prepare for AR5? 

 

Thomas Stocker:at the moment, we are deeply involved in writing the syntheses report, which is the combination of results from the three working groups. This report will be approved by the governments in October, 2014. The next task for IPCC is to prepare for the AR6 and to explore various ways about the future of IPCC. IPCC has formed a task group, composed of a few governments and interested parties, starting the consultation process, to discuss the ingredients and the important points for the AR6. From my perspective as a co-chair, I can say that the scientific community has been exposed in this assessment report to an unprecedented burden of work. Because climate research produces so much material, there are so many people working on climate related issues to perform a comprehensive assessment report. It's a lot of work. The scientists have exhaust their abilities and we need to think of new ways to address this problem in 5-6 years to provide policy makers with best scientific information.

 

Prof.Thomas Stocker.

 

Reporter:in comparison with AR4, what are biggest highlights or advances of AR5?

 

Thomas Stocker:the biggest advance in our working group is much better representation  of physical process through climate models. We have better understanding on the relationship between the increase of the carbon dioxide and the changes that we observe into climate system. Not only has the increase of the temperature, but also the retreat of glacier, the melt of large polar iced sheet and the raise of the sea level. All these processes that are observed can now be closely linked to the increase of carbon dioxide, which leads to one of the clearest messages ever produced by IPCC that is human influence on the climate system is clear. The last point that could be made by Working GroupⅠis the explanation of the cumulative carbon budget. The carbon budget is a policy relevant quantity when it comes to estimating the feasibility of climate target. In another words, how much carbon can mankind emit to the atmosphere will still limiting climate change, for example, two degrees Celsius. For the first time Working GroupⅠhas quantify that relationship and is able to provide information of the extremely policy relevant.

  

Reporter:as IPCC Working GroupⅠCo-Chair, can you tell us how does IPCC ensure a scientific-robust assessment report?

 

Thomas Stocker:this is a central question that needed to be addressed to right from the start at the beginning of IPCC in 1988 and the production of the AR1 in 1990. There are several ways to ensure the robust of our assessment. The first one is to select an extremely competent, high profile and international author team for all the chapters . Second, we took great care to look at the balance and ensure not only the regional, gender balance but also the scientific balance of our author team. This is the most important point to arrive at a robust assessment. Third, in the course of writing the assessment, we have mechanism by which we produce two stages of draft reports. Each of these drafts is sent out internationally to be reviewed by the experts of the world. In the second stage, the governments are also able to provide comments on these drafts. In total, they have collected 143,484 comments. In other words, this is a document that is unparalleled. I know of no other document that has been so thoroughly reviewed before the publication. Therefore, these are the ingredients that help us to ensure a robust, comprehensive and transparent assessment report. 

  

Reporter:from AR1 to AR5, what progresses have been made in order to improve the assessment report?

 

Thomas Stocker: I can give you three examples. The first example comes from observations, what is available in terms of measurements of changes in the climate system. If you look at the first assessment report, the warming that was shown until about the year of 1988 was already visible, but not as pronounced as today. In the first assessment report, we did not have any quantitative information on the response of the polar ice sheet and Greenland and Antarctic to the warming. In the fifth assessment report, we can provide numbers of melting of the big polar ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctic both are melting at an increasing speed, and contribute to sea level rise. Hence, the biggest progress has been a much more extended and more comprehensive observational data base.

 

The second progress has been made in the area of attributing the climate change to the increase of carbon dioxide, where as in the first report, that link was only tenuous, and was mentioned as one possibility among the other possibilities of natural variability. In the second, third and fourth report, this link between the increase of carbon dioxide and observational changes has become stronger and stronger. So in the fifth report, we can now say with confidence and make a statement of fact that human influence on the climate system is clear.

 

The third area of progress concerns the model projection. In the first assessment report there were only two global comprehensive models available, now we have 45 models available from many countries around the world. We also have better scenarios which contain more greenhouse gases, so we believe we have a more complete understanding of the potential changes that are ahead of us.

  

Reporter:As you participated in the Guiyang ecological forum last week, what your impression of ecological construction of China?

 

Thomas Stocker:It's a huge challenge. I'm very happy that the question of ecological and sustainable development has arrived in China. People are aware of it and the top leaders are aware of the challenges of sustainable development. That doesn't mean that we are close to solutions, and it does not mean our homework is completed.  I think this country has seen such enormous development over the past 20 years. If I compare China today to my first contact with China when I was visiting here in 1987, it is a completely different world today from then. And I think it's extremely important for the well-being of this country that sustainable development, ecological construction, and the preservation of the nature and resources must be on the top of the agenda of every responsible leader, particularly in countries that seen such a rapid development. The normal approach is to develop, pollute, and then "oh my god" we have a problem. In fact, it's much cheaper and much more intelligent to not repeat the same mistakes of other countries, learn from mistakes of others.

 

Editor Liu Jia