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Guangdong: continue to improve forecast technologies

来源:China Meteorological News Press   发布时间:2017年08月22日12:35
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From 2008, Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Service has propelled the fundamental transformation of weather prediction service model on the strength of refined grid point forecast operational system. Guangdong has become the first province which boasts compilation technologies of prediction grid.

Guangdong grid forecast products.

Spatial resolution on land is 2.5 kilometers, 10 kilometers at sea, and 1 kilometer for disastrous weather area. Temporal resolution on land is 240 hours and 168 hours at sea. The resolution figures will be updated twice a day and will be corrected at any time when disastrous weather occurs.

On land, every village and county can access to prediction results. At sea, the traditional fixed ocean prediction can be changed into any refined prediction for any sea area, fishery, ship route or island. The general public can obtain weather forecast of any site in Guangdong and the South China Sea. By opening mobile phone positioning, users can get their hands on weather conditions and hourly refined prediction of the current location. Users can also check weather conditions of regions, counties or even streets by entering the destination via Wechat.

Scale 9-10 instantaneous gale emerged in Shihua region, Daya Bay, Huizhou on June 13. Follow-up heavy precipitation cloud system was quite powerful. At 1:30, staff from Huizhou emergency warning information distribution center was informed of the adverse situation and instantly located 19 counties in emergency guidance decision-making auxiliary system and released the warning. Rainstorm red warning signal was rapidly transmitted to over 800 persons in charge of security in schools, hidden trouble areas, administrative villages, and so on. Meteorological departments have also attached significance to targeted warning of refined information, which has been quite instrumental in meteorological disaster prevention and reduction

Due to continuous updating technologies, prediction has tackled the bottleneck of decreasing accuracy with a higher resolution. In the past 5 years, 24-hour weather prediction accuracy is 83.8%, up by 1.6%. The highest and lowest temperature prediction absolute error is 1.2℃ and 0.9℃ respectively,both down by 0.1 ℃. 24-hour typhoon track prediction error is 86 kilometers. Prediction accuracy of rainstorm and severe convective weather reach 41.1% and 80.6%, respectively.

Editor Liu Shuqiao

 

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