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Upgraded NWP system empowers global tropical cyclone prediction

Source:China Meteorological News Press03-09-2021

On September 1, CMA’s independently developed global assimilation forecast system GRAPES_GFS completed upgrading.Using this system, CMA has carried out prediction for the track and gale of hurricane Ida and Nora from August 28 UT.

After the upgrading of GRAPES_GFS, the tropical cyclone forecast scope of World Meteorological Centre (Beijing) is expanded from Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea to the entire world.

The R&D team has developed new vortex initialization technology based on 4Dvar assimilation system, and markedly enhanced the forecasting capability. Besides, the upgraded global model has further boosted track prediction capacity of tropical cyclones.

For users service, the team developed products like global infrared and water vapor cloud image, tropical cyclone track coupled with 120-hour cumulative gale, and tropical cyclone intensity. It has also rolled out products dedicated to key coastal regions like Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Northeast Pacific.

In terms of CMA’s typhoon forecast operation, the upgraded global model can complement with regional typhoon models. This model can provide more accurate medium and long range track prediction. (Sep.3)

Editor: Liu Shuqiao