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The Application of FODAS

17-12-2013Source:China Meteorological News Press

Introduction

 

In 2008, National Climate Center (NCC) of CMA started “Key Technology Research on Improving Dynamical Seasonal Prediction by Utilizing Historical Data”, obtained funds from the special fund for meteorological research, and carried out R&D and operation application research of flood season prediction in China.

 

In recent years, Chinese scholars carried out a series of precipitation prediction research on dynamical and analogy skills in flood season, establishing comprehensive research teams. Meanwhile, they developed related prediction system which has been applied for 2009-2013 summer precipitation prediction by NCC. It grasps the characteristics of main summer rain belt in China, and meets the needs of disaster prevention and mitigation in the country.

 

In 2011-2013, NCC, together with Beijing, Shenyang, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Lanzhou, Xinjiang, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Shandong climate centers, carried out application pilot work of seasonal climate prediction system on dynamical and analogy skills. It constructed Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS). The pilot provinces finished FODAS localization and hind-cast, provided precipitation predictions in the summers of 2011-2013, and promoted the seasonal precipitation forecast. Meanwhile, it witnessed the transformation of scientific research achievements into operation implementation.

 

 

The Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills,FODAS1.0, uses the climate model as the dynamic core, analyzes the characteristics of model error, and takes the climate model as the forecast object. Meanwhile, the system uses historical data similarity as the analogical core, carries out targeted forecast, and  combines the advantages of dynamical and analogy. FODAS 1.0 has been established based on the model error analysis of monthly-seasonal precipitation forecast by BCC_CGCM, and combined 132 climate factors of ocean-atmosphere system, to diagnosis the reasons of model error. Moreover, based on the prediction errors of historical data in similar years, it stacks the current model forecast to get the new forecast results.

 

 

FODAS1.0 is an integrated system which can receive data in real-time, retrieve historical facts and model results, predict national and regional precipitation and temperature by dynamical and analogy skills, and test the score. It has already gained national copyright. The FODAS System produced summer precipitation prediction results during 2009 to 2013, and has been applied in national flood season consultation. The average score is 73 in the recent five years and the ACC is 0.17, increasing significantly compared with the score of BCC_CGCM (61 and 0.04).

 

Application

 

Based on FODAS System, NCC successfully predicted the precipitation in flood seasons from 2009 to 2013. Meanwhile, it grasped the main features of summer rain belt. The system effectively improved seasonal climate prediction level at provincial climate centers, and formed a new management model of modern climate operation.

 

FODAS 1.0 prediction for 2013 flood season precipitation

 

 

Precipitation prediction for September 2013

 

 

Verification for summer precipitation prediction in nearly five years

 

 

Prediction for western Pacific subtropical high

 

 

Prediction for hight fields in Eurasia blocking high field

 

 

Prediction for height fields in northeast cold vortex field

 

 

Height field prediction of this winter based on FODAS 1.0

 

 

Temperature prediction for the winter of 2012

 

 

Development

 

 

From 2009 to 2013, the application of objective prediction technique on dynamical and analogy skills has been improved, forming a set of mature prediction mechanism and process. But the information provided by the numerical model is still relatively limited, which restricts the improvement of prediction technique on dynamical and analogy skills. With the growing awareness of climate system and the development of data assimilation and ensemble forecasting technology, the numerical model forecast skill is gradually improved and we can see more useful information provided by the model. The new generation of short-term climate prediction model of NCC has been applied in operation. In the future, integrating the advantages of statistical physics methods, NCC will furthur develop forecast system on dynamical and analogy skills based on the new generation of numerical model.

 

Editor Shi Long

 

Related  Papers:


A new method of analogue—dynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation based on analogue prediction principal components of model errors.pdf

A Preliminary Research on the Reason of a Sharp Turn from Drought to Flood in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in Late Spring and Early Summer of 2011.pdf

A study of objective and quantitative forecasting the western Pacific subtropical high and its indication for precipitation in summer over China.pdf

A study of the error field of the flood period precipitation of the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River as predicted by an operational numerical prediction model.pdf

A study of the objective and quantifiable forecasting based on optimal factors combinations in precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in Summer.pdf

Analogue correction of errors based on seasonal climatic predicable components and numerical experiments.pdf

Analogue-dynamical Prediction of__ Numerical Model Errors Based on Principal Component Analysis.pdf

Analysis of the summer precipitation of 2012 in East China and its possibility of decadal shift.pdf

Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China.pdf

Estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model on the basis of prophase key factors in North China.pdf