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ARTICLES

A numerical simulation on impact of historical land-use changes on regional climate in

 China since 1700¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Li Qiaoping Ding Yihui Dong Wenjie £¨257£©

Validation of AIRS retrieval temperature and moisture products and their application in numerical

 models¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Gao Wenhua Zhao Fengsheng Gai Changsong(271)

Implementation of NOx and O3  key source tracing method in a regional chemical transport

 model¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Jiang Wenhua Ma Jianzhong£¨281£©

Comparative experiments between effects of Doppler radar data assimilation  and increasing

horizontal resolution on shortª²range prediction ¡­¡­

¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Sheng Chunyan Xue Deqiang Lei Ting et al£¨293£©

Effects of moisture on atmospheric ship waves ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Li Ziliang£¨308£©

Introducing the updating of multiª²reference states into dynamical analogue prediction

¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Ren Hongli Chou Jifan£¨315£©

Study of aerodynamic parameters for different underling surfaces

ª«¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Mao Yuhao Liu Shuhua Li Jing £¨325£©

A study on the air-sea fluxes exchange coefficients over the South  China Sea (SCS) during

the onset of southwest monsoon¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Yan Junyue Tang Zhiyi Yao Huadong et al£¨335£©

Influence of western North Pacific summer monsoon changes on typhoon genesis¡­¡­

¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Wang HuiDing Yihui  He Jinhai£¨345£©

Comparison of three tropical cyclone strength datasets¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Yu Hui Hu Chunmei Jiang Leyi£¨357£©

Analyses of evolutional characteristics of a hailstorm precipitation from TRMM observations

ª«¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­He  Wenying Chen  Hongbin£¨364£©

Analysis of the differences and its causes between temperature  observations recorded by

different  sensors and different shelter¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Xiong Anyuan Zhu Yanjun Ren Zhihua et al £¨377£©

SHORT CONTRIBUTIONS

Circulation patterns for midsummer drought/flood in North China and their earlyª²

summer precursers¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Liang Pingde Duan Liyao Zhou Mingshen et al£¨385£©

Observational analysis on the movement of vortices before/after moving out the

Tibetan Plateau ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Yu Shuhau  Gao Wenliang£¨392£©

DISCUSSIONS

Study for earth-atmosphere coupled dynamical system¡­¡­¡­¡­Mo Jiaqi  Wang Hui  Lin Wantao£¨400£©

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A NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON IMPACT OF HISTORICAL LANDª²USEª¤

CHANGES ON REGIONAL CLIMATE IN CHINA SINCE 1700

Li Qiaoping^1,2ªªDing Yihui² Dong Wenjie ²

1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029  ª¤

2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Abstract

By using the improved regional climate model of National Climate Center (NCC_Reg CM), a series of modeling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impacts  of historical landª²use changes (LUCs) on the regional climate in China. Simulat i ons are conducted for 2 years using estimated landª²use for 1700, 1800, 1900, 1950 and 1990. The conversion of land cover from forests to either grass or crops,  or from grasslands to crops in these periods was extensive over China. Simulatio n results show that since 1700, historical LUCs, such as deforestation, degradat ion of grasslands, expansion of cultivated land etc,

have significant impacted on regional climate change, with rainfall increasing in the lowª²mid Yangtze River basin, Northwest China and part of Northeast China, but decreasing to different extent in other regions. The simulated temperatures  show that significant warming occurred over most areas in China in the recent hu ndred years, especially from 1950 to 1990, which is consistent with the warming  caused by increasing greenhouse gases. On the other hand, historical LUCs have o bviously affected the mean circulation, with the East Asian winter and summer mo nsoon becoming more intensive, which mainly results from the amplified temperatu re difference between ocean and land due to the vegetation change over lands.

Key words:  Historical land-use change, Regional climate, Numerical simulation.

´óÆøºìÍâ̽²âÆ÷(AIRS)Ρ¢Êª¶È·´ÑݲúÆ·µÄÓÐЧÐÔ¼ìÑé¼°ÔÚÊýֵģʽÖеÄÓ¦ÓÃÑо¿

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1 ɽÎ÷Ê¡Ô˳ÇÊÐÆøÏó¾Ö£¬Ô˳ǣ¬044000

2 ¹ú¼ÒÎÀÐÇÆøÏóÖÐÐÄ£¬±±¾©£¬100081ª¤

3 ÖØÇìÊÐÆøÏó¾Ö£¬ÖØÇ죬401147

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ÀûÓÃÖйú540¸öµØÃæÆøÏó¹Û²âÕ¾µã×ÊÁÏ£¬¶Ô1ºÍ7Ô´óÆøºìÍâ̽²âÆ÷(AIRS)µÄ·´ÑÝÖйúÇøÓòµØÃæÆøξ« ¶È×öÁËÏêϸÆÀ¹À£¬·ÖÎöÁ˲úÉúÎó²îµÄÔ­Òò¡£Í¬Ê±°ÑAIRSµÄ·´ÑÝΡ¢Êª¶ÈÀªÏß²úÆ·ÓëT213ÊýÖµÔ¤±¨²úÆ·½øÐбȽϣ¬·ÖÎöÁËËüÃÇÖ®¼äµÄ²îÒ졣Ϊ½øÒ»²½¿¼²ìAIRSΡ¢Êª¶È²úÆ·µÄÓÐЧÐÔ£¬ÎÒÃǰѾ­¹ý¶©ÕýµÄAIRSµØÃæÆøÎÂÒÔ¼°Î¡¢Êª¶ÈÀªÏß²úÆ··ÖÎöͬ»¯µ½Öг߶ÈģʽMM5ÖУ¬ÓÃÓÚ»ª±±½µÑ©ÌìÆø¹ý³ÌµÄ¶Ô±ÈÄ£ÄâÊÔÑ飬·ÖÎöAIRS·´ÑݲúÆ·¶Ô½µÑ©Á¿¡¢Ë®Æû³¡¡¢´¹Ö±Ëٶȳ¡¡¢É¢¶È³¡ÒÔ¼°ÔÆÎïÀí¹ý³ÌµÈµÄÓ°Ïì¡£

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ª¤ª¤VALIDATION OF AIRS RETRIEVAL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PRODUCTS

AND THEIR APPLICATION IN NUMERICAL MODELS

Gao Wenhua^1,2ªªZhao Fengsheng² Gai Changsong³

1  Yuncheng Meteorological Office of Shanxi Province£¬ Yuncheng  044000

2  National Satellite Meteorological Center£¬ Beijing 100081ª¤

3  Chongqing Meteorological Bureau£¬ Chongqing 401147

Abstract

To estimate the accuracy of AIRS retrieval products in the region of China, the  surface air temperature derived from AIRS are compared with those obtained from  540 meteorological stations in the period of July 2004 and January 2005. The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles derived from AIRS are also compared with T213 numerical forecasting products. Then the errors in AIRS atmospheric pro ducts are analyzed. Furthermore, the surface air temperature and atmospheric tem perature and humidity profiles derived from AIRS are assimilated into the MM5 nu merical model by analysis nudging, to investigate their effects on snowfall, and  water vapor, vertical velocity and divergence fields as well as microphysical processes. The preliminary results are as following:

(1) The errors in the surface air temperature retrieved from AIRS are systematic  errors. The influence of terrain altitude can cause a negative deviation of 10  K. Also, the effects of land surface are significant, for the snow cover in winter can bring about a positive deviation of 5 K.  

(2) By comparing the atmospheric profiles derived from AIRS with those from T213  numerical products, it is found that the difference in temperature can reach 2 K, and the difference in relative humidity can reach 25%.

(3) The numerical experiment results show that the use of AIRS atmospheric produ cts in the initial assimilation is able to improve the initial moisture field an d thus the snowfall prediction to some extent.

Key words:  AIRS, Satellite data, Numerical simulation, Snowfall.

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IMPLEMENTATION OF NOx AND O₃ KEY SOURCE TRACING METHOD

IN A REGIONAL CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL

ª¤ª¤Jiang Wenhua^£±£¬£²ªªMa Jianzhong^£±

£± Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

£² Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147

Abstract

NOx and O₃ key source tracing method was implemented in a regional chemical  transport model with meteorological fields provided by the mesoscale model MM5. In t his paper we introduce this tracing method as well as the model to which it is a pplied in detail. The concentration equations for the traced species are describ ed in combination with an analysis of the ozone photochemical mechanism. This source tracing method was applied to a chemical transport model to investigate th e impacts of near by key pollution sources on the photochemical pollution in Be i jing. As a case study, the temporal and spatial distributions and variations of  NOx and O₃ due to the surface emission from Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang were si mula ted for a summertime period. It turns out that the distribution patterns of traced NOx, NOz and O₃ are in agreement with the analyses of their atmospheric lifetime scales, indicating that this tracing method is a powerful method for studyin g the source and transform of nitrogen oxides and ozone on the regional scale. It is found from the case study that NOx originated from Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang itself cannot be transported into Beijing, however, its derivatives ozone and HNO₃ can be transported into Beijing, polluting the urban atmosphere of the city.

Key words: Ozone£¬Nitrogen oxides£¬Tracing method£¬Chemical transport model£¬Photochemical  pollution.

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COMPARATIVE EXPERIMENTS BETWEEN EFFECTS OF DOPPLER RADARª¤

DATA ASSIMILATION AND INCEASING HORIZONTAL RESOLUTIONª¤

ON SHORTª²RANGE PREDICTION

Sheng Chunyan^1,2,3 Xue Deqiang²  Lei Ting¹ Gao Shouting¹

1 Laboratory of Cloudª²precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of

Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

2 Meteorological Center of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031

3 Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Abstract

To examine effects of radar data assimilation and increasing horizontal re solution on the shortª²range numerical weather prediction of precipitation, comp a rative numerical experiments are conducted for a Huabei torrential rainfall even t using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and its Data Analysis Sys tem (ADAS). The experiments differ in five different horizontal gridª²spacings o f  18, 15, 9, 6 and 3 km and two initial fields with/without initial radar data as similation. Results show that, when the radar data are not used in the initial f ields (i.e., using the conventional observation data only), increasing horizonta l resolution can improve the shortª²range prediction within six hours with bette r  representation of the frontal structure and higher scores of rainfall predictio n, especially heavy rain prediction.  The initial radar data assimilation is abl e to significantly improve the precipitation location and intensity prediction w ithin the first six hours such that the 6 h precipitation prediction of the ARPS  at 18 km resolution with initial radar data assimilation is better than that of  the APRS at 3 km resolution without initial radar data assimilation. This sugge sts that the radar data assimilation is more effective in improving the shortª²range precipitation prediction than increasing the horizontal resolution al one. Un der the condition of initial radar data assimilation, experimental results of di fferent resolutions show that differences of prediction results among among diff erent resolution schemes are not evident for ordinary precipitation (¡Ü40 mm/( 6 h)) ,but prediction of higher resolution experiment scheme for extraordinary precip itation (>40 mm/(6 h))ªªis better than other schemes. However, when the  resolution  increases from 6 km to 3 km, there is no evident improvement in precipita tion pr ediction whether the initial radar data assimilation is performed or not. Therefore, the effect of increasing resolution is limited, and combining an adequate h igher resolution with the initial radar data assimilation might be an eff ective way to improve the shortª²range prediction of precipitation.

Key words:Radar data assimilation, Increasing horizontal resolution, Comparativ e experiments,  Shortª²range prediction.

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EFFECTS OF MOISTURE ON ATMOSPHERIC SHIP WAVES

Li Ziliang ^{1, 2}ªª

1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Bei jing 100871

2 Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Department of Marine Meteorology,

 Ocean Uni versity ofª¤China, Qingdao 266003

Abstract

Effects of moisture on the genesis and evolution of mountain gravity waves and a tmospheric ship waves in the threeª²dimensional multiª²layer moisture flow over  to pography are numerically investigated using the Advanced Regional Prediction Sys tem (ARPS5.0.0.0IHOP5). The results show that the moistª²trapped lee wave (the second diverging wave mode) in three dimensional three layer moisture flow over mo untain is apparent in the downstream of the mountain lee side, and it consists o f two diverging wave modes and a transverse wave mode. The genesis and evolution  of atmospheric ship waves are extremely sensitive to the initial spatial distri bution of moisture in the atmosphere, and under certain condition, the introduct ion of moisture might reduce the activities of ship waves in the atmosphere.ª¤

For the three-dimensional threeª²layer flow over a isolated mountain, if the initial moisture is distributed on the middle layer, the impact of moisture and diab atic heating on atmospheric ship waves is minor; if the initial moisture is dist ributed on the middle and lower layers, then effects of moisture and diabatic he ating reduce the intensity of atmospheric ship waves; and if the initial moistur e is distributed on the all layers of the model, then the introduction of moistu re into the model atmosphere will reduce the activities of atmospheric ship wave s in the whole atmosphere.

Key words: Spatial distribution of moisture£¬Atmospheric ship wave activity, Multi layer flow, Isolatedª²mountain.

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INTRODUCING THE UPDATING OF MULTIª²REFERENCE STATES INTO ª¤

DYNAMICAL ANALOGUE PREDICTION

Ren Hongli^1,2ªªChou Jifan²

1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China

Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

2 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

Abstract

In order to effectively utilize the analogue information of historical observati ons, some theoretical and technical problems of the analogue correction of error s (ACE) are further explored in this paper based on the previous studies on anal ogueª²dynamical models. Analyses show that the ACE is the redevelopment of metho d s based on the analogueª²deviation equation and analogueª²correction equation of  e rrors. On the basis of such idea, a new scheme of dynamical analogue prediction  allowing for multiª²referenceª²state updating (MRSU) has been developed. In this  s cheme, when model integration proceeds to the period of analogue updating (PAU),  multiple reference states are reª²selected and optimal forecast vectors are est i mated from multiª²forecasts produced by the analogueª²dynamical model using the  hy perplane approximation method. Such a ¡°selectionª²estimation" procedure is peri od ically repeated until the entire forecast is completed. The MRSU experiments of  Lorenz model have shown that the MRSU is effective in reducing forecast errors a nd raising forecast skill, thus preliminarily confirming the application prospec t of ACE theory. Furthermore, in the conceptual flow chart of the MRSU, introduc ing the ACE into the complicated numerical model is equivalent to realize the fo recast process of analogueª²dynamical model without necessity to reª²establish t he model equation.

Key words: Analogueª²dynamical model, Reference state, Period of analogue updati ng, Dynamical analogue prediction.

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STUDY OF AERODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FOR DIFFERENT UNDERLING SURFACES

Mao Yuhao^1£¬2ªªLiu Shuhua^1£¬2ªªLi Jingª©^1£¬2ªª

1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences the School of Physics Peking University, B eijing 100871

2 Laboratory of Climate Research, National Climatic Center, China Meteorological  Bureau,

 Beijing 100081

Abstract

 Zeroª²plane displacement (d), roughness length (z₀), friction velocit y (u_*) for  the heavy grazing site, moderate grazing site, light grazing site, no grazing s ite, dune, interª²dune, grassland, paddy field site, wheat site, soybean site, a n d maize site etc underlying surfaces have been computed based on the Monin Obuk hovsimilarity theory by utilizing the micrometeorological observation data of th e dune and vegetation underlying surfaces in the semiª²arid area in Naiman city, Inner Mongolia of China, conducted jointly by the Institute of Desert Research o f CAS and the National Institute of Agroª²Environmental Sciences of Japan in 199 0 -1994, and their relationships with horizontal wind speed and Richardson number  analyzed, and the aerodynamic characteristics for different underlying surfaces  under the conditions of different anthropogenically disturbed grassland ecosyste ms also compared. Results show that the vegetation coverage and aboveª²ground biomass decrease with the increase in the anthropogenically disturbed extent of gra ssland ecosystem. The roughness length for different anthropogenically disturbed  underlying surfaces is close related with biomass, vegetation height, and groun d surface undulation, and Richardson number Ri is also its influence facto r. The friction velocity is positively proportional to wind speed and roughness length,  but to different extent for different underlying surfaces. The aerodynamic param eters of the same underling surface are different, too, in different growth seas ons. The above results indicate that grassland and vegetation are of significanc e in preventing the desertification, especially in the arid and semiª²arid land  ecosystem region. And the results of this paper are also important for constructi ng the land surface process as well as regional climate model.

Key words: Different underlying surfaces, Aerodynamic parameter, Anthropogenical ly disturbed grassland ecosystem.

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A STUDY ON THE AIRª²SEA FLUXES EXCHANGE COEFFICIENTS OVER THE SOUTH

CHINA SEA (SCS) DURING THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST MONSOONª¤

Yan Junyue^1,2ªªTang Zhiyi¹ Yao Huadong¹ Li Jianglong¹ Xiao Yiguo³ Chen Yide⁴

1 National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081

2 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080 ª¤

3 Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 100029ª¤

4 PLA University of Science Technology, Nanjing 211101

Abstract

Flux exchange coefficients including drag coefficient (C_D), sensible and  latent  heat flux exchange coefficients (C_H and C_E) are important paramete rs for fluxes  computation when the bulk algorithms and routine observations are used. The comp utation results vary with the experiments over different regions, weather and se a states. The data of the third SCS air-sea fluxes observation experiment from  24 April to 20 June 2002 are used in this paper. Momentum, sensible and latent heat flux exchange coefficients before and after the onset of the SCS southwes t monsoon are estimated using the eddy correlation and TOGA OCRES 2.5b algorithm s. The features of these coefficients and their relationship with other meteorol ogical parameters are also discussed. The results indicate that these flux excha nge coefficients changed significantly with the variation of wind direction, win d speed, cloud, precipitation, humidity and sea state before and after the onset  of SCS southwest monsoon. Under the neutral condition, the momentum exchange co efficient£¨C_Dn £©varied from a smaller value before to a large value after the onset;  and the sensible £¨C_Hn £©and latent£¨C_En£©heat exchang e coefficients were  not sensible to the synoptic change. The momentum exchange coefficient was mainly affected by wind speed, but the association between the both differed with wind speed size. The sensible heat exchange coefficient was positively proportional to the air-sea temperature difference and negatively to air temperature. The latent heat exchange coefficient had close correlation with wind speed, when the w ind speed exceeded£¾12 m/s, C _E gradually approached to a stable value. Beside, when the air-sea temperature difference was less than£¼ 2¡æ, C_E increased with the t emperature difference; and when it exceeded£¼ 2¡æ, the relationship between C_E and the temperature difference turned weak. The above relationships between the coe fficients and meteorological parameters could be expressed with simple linear relation or polynomial fitting.

ª¥Key words: Monsoon onset, SCS southwest monsoon, Air-sea flux exchange, Flux exc hange coefficients.

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INFLUENCE OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON

CHANGES ON TYPHOON GENESISª¤ª¤

Wang Hui^1£¬2£¬3ªªDing Yihui^£´He Jinhai^£³

1 Laboratory of Climate Research, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081ª¤

2 National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081ª¤

3 NIM£¬Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 ª¤

4 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Abstract

The influence of Northwest Pacific summer monsoon (NWPSM) characteristics and th e structure of monsoon trough on typhoon genesis is studied. When the NW Pacific  monsoon trough strengthens and stretches eastwards, causing the enhancement of  NWPSM, the vertical wind shear, divergent winds in the upper and lower atmosphere, humidity and sea surface temperature are all favorable to the typhoon genesis  in the NW Pacific, and the number of typhoon genesis is evidently more than tha t when the NW Pacific monsoon trough is weak. Furthermore, the strength of the N W Pacific monsoon trough also has great impact on the locations of typhoon genes is. Typhoon geneses mostly occur in the western Northwest Pacific in the strong  phase of the monsoon trough, whereas in the eastern Northwest Pacific in the wea k phase. These show that the NWPSM system impacts typhoon genesis mainly through  the activities of the monsoon trough. And the strength of the summer monsoon al so has influence on typhoons. When the NWPSM strengthens in the active phase, th e number of typhoon geneses is more than that in the break phase.ª¥

On the other hand, the NWPSM has impact on typhoon activities through intraseaso nal oscillations, and the 30-60 day oscillation is the dominant component of int raseasonal oscillations. The number of typhoon genesis is obviously more in the  wetª²phase of low frequency convection, and less in the dryª²phase. The west win d  phase of the low frequency zonal wind is favorable to typhoon genesis, and the t yphoon genesis is less in the east wind phase. The cases on 4 and 7  Septembe r 1987 also clearly reveal that the typhoon genesis is influenced by intraseason al oscillations, especially by the 30-60 day oscillations. In addition, the feat ures of NW Pacific summer circulation in the excessive typhoon (group occurrence ) period are analyzed. In these periods, there are generally strong monsoon trou gh, weak vertical wind shear and sufficient water vapor supply, and vice versa i n deficient typhoon periods, The above indicates that the temporalª²spatial grou p  occurrence of typhoon genesis in the NW Pacific has a close correlation with th e activities of the NWPSM.

Key words: Northwest Pacific summer monsoon, Typhoon, Monsoon trough, Vertical w ind shear, Intraseasonal oscillation.

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¢Ù Chu Jª²H, Sampson C R, Levine A S, et al. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Cyclone Bestª²Tracks, 1945ª²2000. Technical Report, NR L Reference Number: NRL/MR/7540ª²02ª²16. 2002

COMPARISON OF THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH DATASETS

Yu Hui^1,2ªªHu Chunmei³ Jiang Leyi^1,2

1  Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai  200030ª¤

2  Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/CMA, Shanghai  200030ª¤

3  Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing  401147

Abstract

Analyzed in this paper are the 16ª²year (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intens i ty data from three major forecast centers for Northwest Pacific typhoons, i.e. C hina Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Ce nter Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Analysis resul ts show that the mean strength difference of tropical cyclones between the CMA a nd RSMC Tokyo datasets and between the CMA and JTWC datasets are 0.6 and 1.7m/ s,  respectively, which are both significant at the 1% confidence level; the maximu m difference in the strength of the same tropical cyclone determined by three ma jor typhoon forecast centers is more than 30 m/s; and the number of typhoons of the CMA dataset is greater than those of the RSMC Tokyo and JTWC datasets, and the mean square deviation of the annual frequency of typhoons of the CMA datasets  is also largest, but there is no significant difference in the frequency of var ious category tropical cyclones among the three center datasets. The comparison  of the data of different time periods with and without flight reconnaissance sug gests that the flight reconnaissance over TC can to some extent reduce the discr epancy in determining the strength of TC among different centers.ª¤

A climatic persistence prediction model for TC strength is established to as sess  the possible impact of initial values on the prediction of TC strength, and fou r years (2000-2003) prediction experiments using different initial values from d ifferent forecast centers are performed. The experimental results indicate that  the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 4ª²year independent forecasts is larges t  using the JTWC data, smallest using the RSMC Tokyo data, and in between using t he CMA data. The averaged absolute deviation of 24h strength prediction using th e CMA and RSMC Tokyo data/CMA and JTWC data is 2.5/4.0 m/s, with the maximum de viation reaching 16/21 m/s, respectively. Such a problem of the initial value ar ose from the basic data of the strength of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones r aises the difficulty in the strength prediction of TCs.

Key words: Tropical cyclone, Typhoon strength, Strength data, Northwest Pacific.

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ANALYSES OF EVOLUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A HAILSTORM

PRECIPITATION FROM TRMM OBSERVATIONS

ª¤He  Wenying Chen  Hongbin

LAGEO, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029

Abstract

A hailstorm occurring on May 9, 1999 in the Huanghuai region is studied by using the combined data from the precipitation radar (PR), microwave imager (TMI), and visible infrared scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainf all Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. According to the 3 successive orbit obse rvations of 4 hour duration from TRMM satellite, the evolutional characteristic s  of the precipitation structures as well as cloud top brightness temperature and  microwave signatures of the precipitating cloud are comprehensively analyzed for hail and rain storm stage. The analysis results show that the precipitation  process evolved gradually from the hailª²precipitation in the early stage i.e. the  hail storm stage with strong convection, into the later stage, i.e. the rain  storm stage with weakening convection. In the early stage, there existed several s trong convective cells in the hail cloud, and there was so much solid precipita tion in the middle upper layer that the contribution of rainfall amount above th e  freezingª²layer to the whole column precipitation amount is far greater than th a t within the meltingª²layer. However, in the rainª²storm stage, the convective c el ls were surround by a vast stretch of stratiform clouds, and the height of preci pitating layer was gradually reduced, the rainfall above the freezingª²layer obv i ously reduced, and thus the contribution of rainfall amount within the meltingª² layer rapidly increased. Comparison of the contribution of the rainfall at differ ent heights to the total column rainfall indicates that the larger the proportio n of the rainfall above the freezing layer in the total column precipitation amo unt, the more intense the convection in the precipitating cloud. Inversely, the larger proportion of the rainfall within the melting layer means that the precip itating cloud is more stable (stratiform clouds). The different response trends  of microwave signatures to precipitation rate in different precipitation stages  suggest that it is better to consider at first the structures and stages of prec ipitating cloud, and then to choose the best microwave channels in the retrieval  of surface rainfall.

Key words:  TRMM, Precipitation radar, Hailstorm, Precipitation structure, Microwa ve brightness temperature.

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CIRCULATION PATTERNS FOR MIDª²SUMMER DROUGHT/FLOOD IN NORTH CHINAª¤

AND THEIR EARLYª²SUMMER PRECURSERS

ª¤Liang Pingde ¹ Duan Liyao ² Zhou Mingshen ¹ Zhou Liangdan ³

1 Tianjin Meteorological Institute, Tianjin  300074ª¤

2 Tianjin  Climate  Centre, Tianjin  300074ª¤

3 Tianjin Meteorlogical Technical Service Centre, Tianjin 300074

Abstract

The relation between weather processes in early  and mid-summer is investigate d  using the NCAR/NCEP daily 500 hPa reanalysis data. It is shown that if there is  a anomalously strong increase process of 500 hPa height over North China in June , then there will be more days when the circulation pattern of ¡°west high east lo w" dominates over North China in July and August, and the rainfall will be less; conversely, if there is a quite deep low process over North China in June, then there will be more days when the circulation pattern of ¡°west low east high " do minates in July and August, and the rainfall will be more. Correlation coefficie nts of the daily maximum positive height anomaly over the North China High regio n (40¡ã-45¡ãN, 100¡ã-115¡ãE) in June with the day number of the circulation patt ern of ¡°west high east low" in July and August over North China, and the mid-sum mer rainfall in North China are 0.597 and 0.562 , respectively. Based on the a bove analysis results, a short rang climate forecast empirical method for mid-summer rainfall in Tianjin was established, and its performance in the operational  forecasts for mid-summer rainfall in Tianjin in 2002-2004 is quite well.

Key words: Midsummer rainfall, North China, Circulation pattern, Early stage  weather process.

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OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ON THE MOVEMENT OF VORTICES BEFORE/AFTERª¤

MOVING OUT THE TIBETAN PLATEAUª¤ª¤

Yu Shuhau Gao Wenliang

The Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration,

Cheng du  610072

Abstract

Characteristics of the activities of the plateau low vortices moving out the Tib etan Plateau during May to September in 1998-2004 are analyzed base on the TRMM  data by using the synoptic/statistic methods. The following movement characteris tics and observational facts of the intensity change of the plateau low vortices  moving off the Tibetan Plateau have been obtained.

£¨1£© The major time period in a year for plateau low vortices moving out the Ti b etan Plateau and then influencing weather in eastern China is from June to Augus t, and their movement characteristics after moving out the plateau differ from t hose before moving out, and also from those of Southwest low vortices. ª¥

£¨2£© The major origin of the plateau vortices which move out the Tibetan Platea u  is in the vicinity of Qumalai and Dege, different from the origin of plateau vo rtices which remain over the plateau.ª¥

(3) The plateau vortices moving out the plateau are usually move eastwards or so u theastwards with troughs, while those remaining over the plateau frequently move  northeastwards along the shearª²line. After moving off the plateau, the plateau   vortex may not only impacts weather in a large stretch of downstream areas in Ch ina, but also in the Korea peninsular and Japan.£¨4£© The characteristic and intensity of the vortices will change after moving  o ut the plateau. The vortices, which remain active for 36 h after moving out, are   mostly warm low vortices before and mostly become baroclinic after moving out, a nd then strengthen, bring about torrential rain or heavy torrential rain.

£¨5£© After moving out the plateau, the vortex may change its behavior: When moving over the sea surface, its precipitation will mostly strengthen, and its centr al geopotential height decrease; the vortex may remain stationary, when there ar e activities of tropical cyclones in the East China Sea or its vicinity; it move s southwards when there is the tropical cyclone in the South China Sea; and it m ay move slowly or remain stationary when the monsoon low system is inactive in I ndia and the Bay of Bengal.

Key words: Plateau low vortex, Moving out the Tibetan Plateau, Observational facts.

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3  ÖйúÆøÏó¿ÆѧÑо¿Ôº, ±±¾©, 100081

4  LASG,Öйú¿ÆѧԺ´óÆøÎïÀíÑо¿Ëù, ±±¾©, 100029

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STUDY FOR EARTHª²ATMOSPHERE COUPLED DYNAMICAL SYSTEM

Mo Jiaqi^1,2  Wang Hui ³ Lin Wantao⁴

1 Department of Mathematics, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000ª¤

2 Division of Computational Science, Eª²Institutes of Shanghai Universities at  SJTU,

Shanghai 200240

3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 ª¤

4 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1 00029

Abstract

A class of nonlinear coupling system for earth-atmosphere oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method of nonlinear equation for the earth-atmosphere oscillator model. Using the variatio n al iteration method, the approximate expansions of the solution of corresponding  problem are constructed. That is, firstly, introducing a set of functionals and   culculating their variationals, the Lagrange multiplicators are computed, and then  the variational iteriation is defined, finally, the uniformly convergent approx imate expressions of the solution for the original nonlinear problem for the earth-atmosphere oscillator model are obtained.

Key words: Nonlinear, Earth-atmosphere coupling, Dynamical  system.