As the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP29) is ongoing, our attention is once again focused on topics such as climate change response, extreme weather, and in particular, early warning.

During the High-Level meeting on "Early Warnings for a Climate-Resilient Future" on the occasion of COP29, China's Action Plan on Early Warning for Climate Change Adaptation (2025-2027) was published. The Plan will further incentivize our action to implement United Nations (UN) Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) Initiative.

On the occasion of this global event, let's gain an insight into China's local early warning practice which will provide reference for the international community to address severe weather and ramp up global disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capability. That is, “6-3-1 hour(s) early warning model”of heavy rain initiated by Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Service.

Jiangxi is situated in the south of the Yangtze River, featured by subtropical monsoon humid climate, with the annual average precipitation ranking third in China. There are many rivers within the region, more than 3,700 rivers among them with a catchment area of over 10 square kilometers. 

Affected by climatic and geographical conditions, Jiangxi  is one of the provinces in China which are most susceptible to meteorological disasters. There are many kinds of disasters, which are wide-ranging,frequent, and costly. According to statistics, ,meteorological disasters account for 70% of the total natural disasters in Jiangxi, and secondary disasters account for 85% of the natural disasters, especially the heavy rainfall and induced flood disasters of small and medium-sized rivers, which have posed a threat to people's life and property safety.

“6-3-1 hour(s) early warning model” of heavy rain

In 2022，“6-3-1 hour(s) early warning model”of heavy rain (hereinafter referred to as the Mechanism) at provincial-municipal-county levels has thus been established after years of development. 

Features and work procedures

The Mechanism is characterized by 6-hour risk warning at the provincial level, 3-hour risk notification at the municipal level, and 1-hour risk “alert and response” at the county level. 

Meteorological departments in Jiangxi have carried out early warnings of floods in small and medium-sized rivers triggered by heavy precipitation, providing support for government decision-making, improving the work of early transfer of people in danger against disaster risk, and avoiding excessive transfer.

Work procedures of the Mechanism at provincial-municipal-county levels

The Mechanism has driven and improved the early warning response chain from the signal end (meteorology) to the management end (Flood Control and Drought Relief headquarters at all levels), and then to the implementation end (at primary level). And responding measures of relevant departments of Flood Control and Drought Relief headquarters at all levels, and county-level governments after receiving risk warnings have also been clarified.

Science and Technology has empowered the effective implementation of the Mechanism

The product system of the Mechanism which incorporates real-condition grid precipitation products, grid precipitation forecasting products, and risk early warning service products has been established ,which has provided vigorous support for the development of risk early warning service of the Mechanism.

Products have been connected to systems of 29 departments such as water conservancy, emergency response, natural resources, housing, forestry, culture and tourism, transportation, energy, and electric power. The data is directly connected to the disaster prevention and mitigation system of 1,676 townships (streets). In the meanwhile, data of hydrology, reservoir, and water level is also connected to assist decision-making and deployment, which realizes the efficient transmission and effective application of meteorological forecasting and early warning information, and improves the disaster prevention and mitigation ability at the grassroots level.

The Chief forecaster was providing early warning services for heavy precipitation through the operational platform of the Mechanism

Template for disaster prevention and reduction

Since 2024, Jiangxi Province has conducted “alert and response”through telephone calls 79352 times and 215744 times through SMS calls. Flood control and Drought Relief Headquarters of Jiangxi Province has issued 36 personnel transfer instructions based on meteorological information, avoiding the relocation of more than 500,000 people, and emergency evacuation of more than 100,000 people and emergency relocation of more than 30,000 people,

The Mechanism has ensured that the early warning is responded, response triggers action, and the action is effective. Through effective early warning, rapid response and reasonable responding measures, the Mechanism has elevated the capability of the society to tackle disasters and provided a referential case for disaster prevention and mitigation.

As successful local early warning practice of China, the Mechanism will further provide reference for Members of the World Meteorological Organization, and even for the global community, contributing China's meteorological strength to effectively implementing EW4ALL Initiative.

In collaboration with Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Service

Special thanks to FU Yunjie

Planned by/Editor: LIU Shuqiao