According to National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying and could become the strongest in 150 years. How severe will this episode be, and what does it mean? Let's take a closer look.  

On the afternoon of August 1, scorching heat blanketed the Yangtze River Delta region, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai.  Source: National Meteorological Centre of CMA

Growing probability of a super El Niño

Monitoring by the NCC shows that the central-eastern equatorial Pacific met El Niño criteria in May, with sea surface temperatures continuing to warm through June. By July, the event had entered the "strong" category, and the likelihood of a super El Niño developing is increasing. The current event is expected to last at least until next spring, with a total duration close to the historical average of 10–11 months.  

Strong El Niño amplifies risks of heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall

El Niño acts as a global climate "amplifier", altering the probability of extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, and torrential rain. A strong event reshapes atmospheric circulation patterns through teleconnections and ocean-atmosphere interactions, thereby shifting the seasonal climate probability distributions for different regions.

CHEN Lijuan, Chief Forecaster of the NCC, notes that historical data show El Niño affects China differently at various stages—its onset, development, peak, and decay:  

During the development summer, the western North Pacific tends to generate more typhoons, which are stronger, form farther southeast, and make landfall with greater intensity, bringing heavier wind and rain to southeastern and southern coastal areas, with a higher chance of northward-moving typhoons.  

In the autumn and winter when El Niño peaks, southern China typically experiences significantly above-average rainfall.  

During the decay phase in spring and summer, the Yangtze River basin and areas south of the Yangtze face elevated flood risks.  

2027 could become the warmest year on record globally  

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)'s annual Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are very likely to remain near or at record-high levels.  

CHEN Lijuan adds that, based on historical data and expert analysis, the global climate impacts of a strong El Niño often peak in the year following the event. Because the ocean's impact on the atmosphere is delayed, it generally becomes fully apparent six months to a year after the event peaks.

Author: LIU Rui

Editor: JIANG Zhiqing