According to World Meteorological Centre Beijing (WMC-BJ), in April, the average temperatures in most regions of West Asia, South Asia, and southern Central Asia are expected to be 4 to 6°C higher than the long-term average for the same period, with some areas experiencing anomalies exceeding 8°C. Additionally, persistent high-temperature conditions have been observed in certain regions. Notably, Pakistan, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have experienced abnormally high temperatures, with maximum temperatures surpassing 45°C in parts of West and South Asia.

It is forecasted that over the next week, affected by the subtropical high or continental ridge, most regions in eastern West Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, the majority of South Asia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southern Kazakhstan will experience below-normal rainfall. High temperatures ranging from 35 to 37°C, with localized areas exceeding 40°C, are expected to persist. Specifically, portions of eastern Saudi Arabia, eastern Iran, southwestern Afghanistan, eastern Pakistan, and western India will likely see maximum temperatures surpassing 45°C (Figures 1-2).

Figure 1 500 hPa Geopotential Height (contours) and 850 hPa Wind Field (wind barbs, shaded areas indicate wind speed) at 1200 UTC on May 1, 2025

Figure 2 Forecast of Daily Maximum Temperatures (≥35°C) from 20:00 on April 30 to 20:00 on May 7, 2025

Over the past week, average temperatures in Western Europe and the western part of Southern Europe were 1 to 3°C higher than the long-term average for the same period, with localized areas in Spain and Portugal experiencing anomalies of around 4°C. Looking ahead, the forecast for the upcoming week indicates the precipitation events across Western, Southern, and Central Europe. Specifically, Spain and Portugal are expected to see mainly light to moderate rain. Average temperatures will range from 10 to 17°C, close to the seasonal norm. Before April 6, daily maximum temperatures will be between 18 and 24°C, with some localized areas exceeding 28°C. A temperature drop is anticipated to begin on April 7 (Figures 3-5).

Figure 3 24-hour rainfall accumulation and 850 hPa Wind Field (Wind Barbs, Shaded Areas Indicate Wind Speed) from 08:00 May 2 to 08:00 May 3, 2025

Figure 4 Forecast of Daily Average Temperature from 20:00 on April 30 to 20:00 on May 7, 2025 (Unit: °C)

Figure 5 Forecast of Daily Maximum Temperatures from 20:00 on April 30 to 20:00 on May 7, 2025 (Unit: °C)

Source: World Meteorological Centre Beijing

Editor: LIU Shuqiao