Updated: 10-04-2024
Source: China Meteorological News Press
Recently, it has been learned from the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) that its AI-based operational and technological system for seamless and intelligent digital precipitation forecasting was well tested in the short-range quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for the flood season and the associated meteorological services in 2023.
The use of AI-based short-rangeprecipitation products during the extreme rainstorm in North China on July 23, 2023
Source: NMC
The system based on intelligent digital forecasting of short- to medium-range precipitation helps to further improve the operational capability in this connection, bringing the NMC's storm and heavy rainfall forecast accuracy scores to a new high, with the Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall in 2023 registering 0.145. The meteorological services were delivered by the rolling update of the well-performing digital precipitation nowcasting system, providing refined forecasts for key points, which strongly supported the conclusion on the presence or absence of asignificant precipitation in critical periods.
The System focuses on five types of products, namely, nowcasting precipitation of 10-min resolution and updating, short-range precipitation of hourly resolution and updating, short- to medium-range precipitation and phase of 3-hour resolution and 12-hour updating, and (new) snow depth. All of them achieve a 5-kilometer resolution for the whole country and a 1-kilometer resolution for large urban agglomerations.
The application of short-range multi-model Three-Cornered Hat (TCH) objective forecasting technique in the extreme rainstorm on July 23, 2023
Source: NMC
At the same time, with thestronger application of multi-source observation and forecasting data, the System has improved the forecasting of small- and medium-scale systems by the precipitation nowcasting products based on refined real-time gridded data, and the accuracy of heavy precipitation forecasts by short- and medium-range gridded precipitation products based on the multi-scale model and the ensemble prediction system.
Based on the intelligent digital forecasting of winter precipitation, the System has also realized the production of operational rain and snow forecast products for the next 1 to 7 days, further optimizing the operational process of integrating objective and subjective forecasts of winter precipitation.
Editor: JIANG Zhiqing